“I invest only when I hear the sound of cannon fire and see blood running in the streets. I sell when I hear the sound of the violins.”

The Baron Rothschild

Thought-provoking argument, as always.

However, one comment on finding a bottom in this market. Looking at the sale the other day on TV, I was surprised that the decline was not greater. If one uses the Dow as an arbitrary yardstick, then prices should have fallen more than 50 per cent from last year’s sale to this year’s sale – and if I am up to date with the day by day statistics, the drop off has been big but not that big.

But we have other negative factors to consider: I would think it a mortal lock that there will be far fewer races carded when these yearlings reach racing age. How many tracks will close between here and then, for example? Three, four, five? I don’t know, but the likelihood is that that these yearlings will have fewer races in which to compete and, with the continuing decline in handle, lower purses to compete for.

You have used excellent quotations in your article. But one you could have added (and I have to paraphrase here because I don’t have the exact wording to hand): Baron de Rothschild once said: ‘Buy when there’s blood in the streets.’

One could argue that there is some blood in the (bloodstock) streets right now, but I have a hunch there will be more. Some horses bought or bred at higher prices are not being sold at the moment, but there will come a time when they will be (or the owners will need racing silks.) You cite calls from interested parties as indications that ‘green shoots’ are appearing. I would wait until the ‘phones are not ringing at all and when there is absolute pessimism afoot before I would venture to call a possible turn. I don’t think we’ve reached that point yet.

I see little to be optimistic about in racing’s future, with its disorganized, dysfunctional structure, its loopy medication laws and enforcement and its lack of a strategy to retain old fans let alone attract new ones. And, correspondingly, I see little reason why anyone would want to race a horse right now, unless they needed tax losses. (Having said that, I am silly enough to try, again and again.)

And then you might be right. The market might be about to turn. But mark me down as a pessimist on that score. I think that this bear’s appetite has not been satisfied sufficiently for it to hibernate.

Keep up the great writing and all the very best.

Graeme.